Surface Assumptions

Assumptions are an essential aspect of any human-centred change initiative. They are things accepted as true or sure to happen without proof.

Change design prototypes, for instance, usually contain embedded assumptions associated with their feasibility, viability, and desirability. As a leader, it is crucial to help your design team surface and work with these assumptions consciously and constructively.

To start, create a safe and supportive environment for your team to explore their assumptions. Encourage everyone to be curious, open-minded, and respectful of each other’s perspectives. Then, ask your team to answer the question, ‘What must be true for our solution to be desirable, feasible and viable’? Identify the fundamental assumptions that underpin the change. Write them down on a whiteboard or a shared document.

To help surface these assumptions, use the following questions:

Desirability:

1. Who are the target stakeholders for our solution?

2. What problems do our users want to solve?

3. How do our stakeholders solve this problem today?

4. Why can’t our stakeholders solve this problem today?

5. What is the outcome our stakeholders want to achieve?

6. Why will our stakeholders stop using their current solution?

Feasibility:

1. What are our biggest technical or specialist challenges?

2. What are our most significant legal or regulatory risks?

3. What are our internal governance or policy hurdles?

4. Why does our leadership team support this solution?

5. Where does our funding for this solution come from?

6. Why is our team uniquely positioned to implement?

Viability:

1. What are our main acquisition channels for obtaining users?

2. How will our stakeholders repeatedly use the solution?

3. Why will our stakeholders refer us to new users?

4. How does this solution support our vision?

5. What is the primary competition for our solution?

6. How will the positive impact of our solution be measured?

After identifying these assumptions, categorise them using a matrix that plots them based on their importance and confidence level. Importance refers to the impact of the assumption on the initiative’s success, while confidence refers to the level of certainty that the assumption is valid.

Divide the matrix into four quadrants:

1. High Importance, High Confidence: These assumptions significantly impact the initiative’s success and are most likely true. They can be accepted as true and used as a foundation for the initiative.

2. High Importance, Low Confidence: These assumptions have a high impact on the initiative’s success but are uncertain. These assumptions require further validation through experiments or research.

3. Low Importance, High Confidence: These assumptions have a low impact on the initiative’s success but are highly certain to be true. They can be assumed to be true, but they do not require much attention.

4. Low Importance, Low Confidence: These assumptions have a low impact on the initiative’s success and are uncertain. They can be ignored or revisited at a later stage.

Once the team has categorised assumptions into the high-importance, low-confidence quadrant for further testing and validation, use experiments to gather data and insights to help you validate or invalidate the assumptions. Involve users, stakeholders, and subject matter experts in the testing process to gain diverse perspectives.

By categorising the assumptions based on their importance and confidence level, you can focus your efforts on the most critical assumptions that require further validation. This approach can help you avoid costly mistakes and ensure that your solution meets the needs of the users, is technically feasible, and is financially viable and socially responsible.